Predictive model of mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

BACKGROUND: Hospital mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is high despite albumin treatment, particularly in those with worse liver and/or renal function. AIM: To determine the independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and to create and validate a predictive model of mortality in patients with SBP. METHODS: We analysed all cirrhotic patients with high-risk SBP (serum urea ≥11 mmol/L and/or serum bilirubin ≥68 µmol/L) between 2001 and 2011. We developed a predictive model of in-hospital mortality and validated this in a different cohort. RESULTS: We included 118 high-risk SBP episodes treated with antibiotics and albumin. In-hospital mortality was 33/118 (28%). The independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality at SBP diagnosis were serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure. A predictive model including these four variables showed a discrimination accuracy (AUC) of 0.850, 95% CI 0.777-0.922. A cut-off point of 0.245 showed a sensitivity of 0.85 and specificity of 0.75. The in-hospital mortality was 28/49 (57.1%) in patients with a model value ≥0.245, and 5/69 (7.2%) in patients with a model value <0.245 (P < 0.001). The validation series included 161 patients with an in-hospital mortality of 40/161 (24.8%), 30/77 (39.0%) in patients with a model value ≥0.245, and 10/84 (11.9%) in those with a model value <0.245 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a predictive model of mortality that includes serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure in high-risk patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. These findings may help to identify patients who would benefit from additional therapeutic strategies.

Clinical Value of Thyrotropin Receptor Antibodies for the Differential Diagnosis of Interferon Induced Thyroiditis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical value of thyrotropin receptor antibodies for the differential diagnosis of thyrotoxicosis induced by pegylated interferon-alpha remains unknown. We analyzed the diagnostic accuracy of thyrotropin receptor antibodies in the differential diagnosis of thyrotoxicosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) receiving pegylated interferon-alpha plus ribavirin. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 274 patients with CHC receiving pegylated interferon-alpha plus ribavirin. Interferon-induced thyrotoxicosis was classified according to clinical guidelines as Graves disease, autoimmune and non- autoimmune destructive thyroiditis. RESULTS: 48 (17.5%) patients developed hypothyroidism, 17 (6.2%) thyrotoxicosis (6 non- autoimmune destructive thyroiditis, 8 autoimmune destructive thyroiditis and 3 Graves disease) and 22 "de novo" thyrotropin receptor antibodies (all Graves disease, 2 of the 8 autoimmune destructive thyroiditis and 17 with normal thyroid function). The sensitivity and specificity of thyrotropin receptor antibodies for Graves disease diagnosis in patients with thyrotoxicosis were 100 and 85%, respectively. Patients with destructive thyroiditis developed hypothyroidism in 87.5% of autoimmune cases and in none of those with a non- autoimmune etiology (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Thyrotropin receptor antibodies determination cannot replace thyroid scintigraphy for the differential diagnosis of thyrotoxicosis in CHC patients treated with pegylated interferon.

Applicability and accuracy improvement of transient elastography using the M and XL probes by experienced operators.

Transient elastography (TE) is the reference method to obtain liver stiffness measurements (LSM), but no results are obtained in 3.1% and unreliable in 15.8%. We assessed the applicability and diagnostic accuracy of TE re-evaluation using M and XL probes. From March 2011 to April 2012 868 LSM were performed with the M probe by trained operators (50-500 studies) (LSM1). Measurements were categorized as inadequate (no values or ratio <60% and/or IQR/LSM >30%) or adequate. Inadequate LSM1 were re-evaluated by experienced operators (>500 explorations) (LSM2) and inadequate LSM2 using XL probe (LSMXL). Inadequate LSM1 were obtained in 187 (21.5%) patients, IQR/LSM >30% in 97 (51%), ratio <60% in 24 (13%) and TE failed to obtain a measurement in 67 (36%). LSM2 achieved adequate registers in 123 (70%) of 175 registers previously considered as inadequate. Independent variables (OR, 95%CI) related to inadequate LSM1 were body mass index (1.11, 1.04-1.18), abdominal circumference (1.03, 1.01-1.06) and age (1.03, 1.01-1.04) and to inadequate LSM2 were skin-capsule distance (1.21, 1.09-1.34) and abdominal circumference (1.05, 1.01-1.10). The diagnostic accuracy (AUROC) to identify significant fibrosis improved from 0.89 (LSM1) to 0.91 (LSM2) (P = 0.046) in 334 patients with liver biopsy or clinically significant portal hypertension. A third evaluation (LSMXL) obtained adequate registers in 41 (93%) of 44 patients with inadequate LSM2. Operator experience increases the applicability and diagnostic accuracy of TE. The XL probe may be recommended for patients with inadequate values obtained by experienced operators using the M probe. http://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01900808).

Long-term follow-up of 1,000 patients cured of Helicobacter pylori infection following an episode of peptic ulcer bleeding.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication on ulcer bleeding recurrence in a prospective, long-term study including 1,000 patients. METHODS: Patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were prospectively included. Prior non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use was not considered exclusion criteria. H. pylori infection was confirmed by rapid urease test, histology, or (13)C-urea breath test. Several eradication therapies were used. Subsequently, ranitidine 150 mg o.d. was administered until eradication was confirmed by (13)C-urea breath test 8 weeks after completing therapy. Patients with therapy failure received a second, third, or fourth course of eradication therapy. Patients with eradication success did not receive maintenance anti-ulcer therapy and were controlled yearly with a repeat breath test. NSAID use was not permitted during follow-up. RESULTS: Thousand patients were followed up for at least 12 months, with a total of 3,253 patient-years of follow-up. Mean age 56 years, 75% males, 41% previous NSAID users. In all, 69% had duodenal ulcer, 27% gastric ulcer, and 4% pyloric ulcer. Recurrence of bleeding was demonstrated in three patients at 1 year (which occurred after NSAID use in two cases, and after H. pylori reinfection in another one), and in two more patients at 2 years (one after NSAID use and another after H. pylori reinfection). The cumulative incidence of rebleeding was 0.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.16-1.16%), and the incidence rate of rebleeding was 0.15% (0.05-0.36%) per patient-year of follow up. CONCLUSION: Peptic ulcer rebleeding virtually does not occur in patients with complicated ulcers after H. pylori eradication. Maintenance anti-ulcer (antisecretory) therapy is not necessary if eradication is achieved. However, NSAID intake or H. pylori reinfection may exceptionally cause rebleeding in H. pylori-eradicated patients.

Natural prevalence of HCV minority variants that are highly resistant to NS3/4A protease inhibitors.

Minority drug-resistant hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants may go undetected yet be clinically important. NS3/4A protease resistance substitutions V36A and A156S/T/V were selected in patients treated with protease inhibitors. The aim of this study was to investigate whether these substitutions pre-existed in HCV infected patients. An allele-specific PCR protocol that detected the NS3/4A protease resistance substitutions V36A and A156S/T/V was used to determine the prevalence of naturally occurring variants in 45 patients. All patient samples were infected with HCV of genotype 1b and were naïve for pegIFNα/ribavirin treatment. Thirty samples (67%) had at least one HCV PI-resistant variant. A156T (23, 51%) was detected more frequently than A156V (13, 29%) or A156S (1, 2%). V36A was detected in 12 samples (27%). These results demonstrate the high prevalence of minority drug-resistant NS3/4 protease resistance substitutions. Our results also demonstrate that allele-specific PCR can be used to detect minor HCV NS3 protease resistant variants in pretreatment samples and to study in detail the evolution of mutant viruses during targeted antiviral therapy.